NICE NEW RATTLE

In 1950 Waldemar Kaempffert, Science Editor of the New York Times, wrote an article for Popular Science entitled "Miracles You'll See in The Next Fifty Years". Therein, he tried to predict how the world would be in year 2000. As a scenario for his visualisations of the future, he envisaged an imaginary city called "Tottenville" where the “Dobson family”--the household of the future--would live. Although some of his predictions were fairly right, the vast majority of them were absolutely crazy, let alone wrong. Here are a few:

RIGHT (or sort of)

"[The] expansion of the frozen-food industry and the changing gastronomic habits of the nation have made it necessary to install in every home the electronic industrial stove which came out of World War II." --The Microwave, one may think

"It takes no more than a minute to transmit and receive in facsimile a five-page letter on paper of the usual business size. Cost? Five cents."

"By the year 2000, physicians have several hundred of these chemical agents or antibiotics at their command. Tuberculosis in all of its forms is cured as easily as pneumonia was cured at mid-century."

WRONG

"Steel is used only for cutting tools and for massive machinery" and "By 2000, wood, brick and stone are ruled out because they are too expensive."

"Houses are cheap. With all its furnishings, Joe Dobson paid only $5000 for it. Though it is galeproof and weatherproof, it is built to last only about 25 years."

"Two-dozen soluble plastic plates cost a dollar. They dissolve at about 250 degrees Fahrenheit, so that boiling-hot soup and stews can be served in them without inviting a catastrophe. The plastics are derived from such inexpensive raw materials as cottonseed hulls, oat hulls, Jerusalem artichokes, fruit pits, soybeans, bagasse, straw and wood pulp." And, "When Jane Dobson cleans house she simply turns the hose on everything. Why not? Furniture (upholstery included), rugs, draperies, unscratchable floors— all are made of synthetic fabric or waterproof plastic. After the water has run down a drain in the middle of the floor (later concealed by a rug of synthetic fiber) Jane turns on a blast of hot air and dries everything."

What I really find surprising is that Kaempfert figured out all these excentric scenarios and, yet, he couldn't imagine at least two things that one could have expected to be more easily forseeable given the time he was living, and his professional connections. First, the internet: Alan Turing published in 1950 his paper describing the potential development of computer and human intelligence (the Turing Test) and, one year after, in 1951, the first commercial computer (UNIVAC) was produced. Second: Gender equality: Kaempffert predicted a great change on furniture textile, yet he took for granted that it was going to be Mrs.Dobson who was going to clean it. During the 50s, the second-wave of feminism was already cooking, and only three years later, in 1953, Simone de Beauvoir's 'The Second Sex' was already translated into English.

It seems that Orwell was right in claiming that to see what is in front of one's nose needs a constant struggle. Kaempfert clearly prefered to indulge in science fiction.

The full text of the article is transcribed here. Don't miss the entertaining illustrations.

Comments

written on 15-Apr-2009
kylie says:
A great read! If only houses were as cheap as predicted but I'm glad I'm not cleaning my home with a hose!
:P
written on 15-Apr-2009
Rodrigo [http://www.pormisfogones.eu] says:
Partially wrong: "so that boiling-hot soup and stews can be served in them [soluble plastic plates] without inviting a catastrophe". All that microwavable crap most of the time is served directly in plastic containers, eaten with plastic cutlery, dissolving itself in an ocean of rubbish.
written on 15-Apr-2009
cristian.saracco [http://www.brand30.net] says:
He was a genious... He predicted several things in the right way with 50 years of anticipation...

See our leaders (not only politicians)... The are not able to predict what is going to happen tomorrow... And most of the time, they are wrong...

Solutions use to be hidden at plain sight!...

Regarding house prices... perhaps, he wanted to say that that was one of the 360 loan monthly instalments
written on 15-Apr-2009
julio.ferro says:
Take a look at this picture from the 1979 book "Future Cities". Except those horrible cat suits, there's a lot of things that we actually use.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/sots/1271028593/
written on 15-Apr-2009
chickerino says:
Microwavable food's not what it used to be (in 19th century france) eh! Those were the days
written on 19-Jun-2009
cristian.saracco says:
Nos están ijnvadiendo desde China.... Ya borré 8 de estos mensajes SPAM de mi blog!... Que la fuerza te acompañe!

Writing Desk » BACK TO THEIR FUTURE

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