The semantic blog » Turning crisis into opportunity… Something we love

We are in crisis. It is a fact…

One of the best explanations that we read has been written by Leopoldo Abbey (it’s in Spanish). He talked about the "Ninja" crisis (not income, no job, no assets). If you like stories with some black sense of humour, read this, it has no waste.

As a synthesis, there are several reasons why we are where we are:

• The macro reasons:

• After the Internet bubble, people returning to something more tangible… bricks… In the U.S., housing doubled its value over the last 10 years
• For different reasons, interest rates in recent years have been low, if not very low, and this began to make life more difficult to financial institutions. Decision:

• More mortgage loans with an interest somewhat higher since they began to lend money to the Ninja. This is what is known as "subprime mortgages". Admittedly creativity in "naming" who have financiers!
• Increase the number of operations to offset the low margins. Simple rule, if I cannot move the price, I increase the volume. To give more loans they needed more money, and if it is not here, it has to be found elsewhere. And to do that what it’s better than globalization. With different financial products (again the "naming" is present), which makes more complex to blame someone, the situation became global; JohnBank (USA) to borrow HelmutBank (Germany) who in turn asked Taguchibank (Japan), which used funds invested by Morriña Saving Bank (Spain), which used the savings of Manuel Fernandez (you, me, us) to whom now the institution cannot give back their money

• The micro reasons:

• We want higher salaries, retire with better pensions, have better health and social coverage … And all at once! A system like this is at least difficult to sustain over time. If we add to this that our life expectancy in 2015 is estimated at more than 100 years, danger!
• However, there is a crisis, we are in crisis. we delay expenses, shorten holidays, we stop and don’t move!
• Lower consumption, less production, rising stocks, less work, more layoffs ... A vicious circle

In other words, as shown in Table 1 (on the vertical axis can put the indicator that you like best: income, results, investment, employment, demand…), we have been good, we talk about the crisis and stop, starts crisis, and over time it goes away, of course with all the direct and collateral effects of any situation like this. It is also true that this is generated by expectations on what is happening (or somebody tells us that happens) and by perceptions of what we believe is happening. This second point somehow generates a "self-fulfilled prophecy": We see a crisis coming; we feed it, and finally we make it deeper.

Table 1 | The evolution of the crisis

And this is the kind of graphics that we begin to see. Of course, these are speaking of average.

In a world like ours, a network, fluid, trends and counter-trends all presented in simultaneous, the average is not the best metric.

Let's see in Table 2. The average may represent companies that are doing fantastic (and then after the crisis will get even better… I exclude the opportunists of crises, since they can be good business, but not long term corporations), companies suffering from the slowdown caused by the situation and others that disappear.

Table 2 | Not all evolve like the average

The truth is that since the beginning of time (allow me this biblical comment), always when there was a threat, there were also people who knew how to look beyond it and transform it into an opportunity.

And this also happens, from the point of view of strategic marketing, branding and innovation. Why do we say “from this point of view”?

• Because it is from here that, honestly, we can ensure the improvement of revenue (at least, keep it them during the storm) and construction of long-term value
• Because it is usually what companies fail to do in times of great "negative" uncertainty (the uncertainty is entropic, grows, expands, does not stop, though of course, sometimes we perceive it more dramatic), in addition to cutting the 3C, coffee, copier and cadet. Any investment can wait
• Because in the case of marketing, the metrics that are used (if any) do not show the relation between what you do with what you get; the area is a cost centre more than a generator of value
• Because branding is long term, not always under the control of the company (in fact, fewer and fewer), and in many cases limited to matters of image (rather than identity and image). It's like when we go to buy clothes, with the crisis we can wait
• Because culturally innovation shows that deadlines are multiplied by eight, and also the costs. They do not consider ways to allow a more structured move from creativity to innovation, and meet deadlines, investments, etc..
• Because we love these issues (the fundamental reason)

So, what kind of attitudes do we observe in crisis’ time? Let's see Table 3.

Table 3 | Business attitudes

Much of the companies follow the crisis pattern, on expectations as well as on perceptions of what will happen (in gray). All of them, share sorrows, meet in chambers, read and listen to the same "usual suspects". After the crisis, they are back again on track, and possibly, in a short time they will have forgotten everything that this unique situation could leave them as learning.

It is important to remark that in some sectors, the strength of the crisis is so powerful that even wanting to do something else, they are dragged by it. This is not about being "naïf".

Others have the perception hormone out of control (orange). Upon seeing the chaos to come (for them this is not just a crisis) they stop… stop completely disappear from the market, they are not listening. Generally in these companies, when the crisis reached its worst stadium and they see that it was not to much (regarding their initial perception), they tend to recover quickly and return to its normal rhythm, even before the rest. Sometimes shy away is not wrong.

And there are some companies that we particularly like; actually, we love them (dark red). Those who wisely seen how to turn this situation into an opportunity:

• They do not invest more or less; they do it better
• They do not create a crisis committee; they put the focus on what they can do differently
• They do not go to the market as hallucinated people; they focus on those with whom they share a value agenda and behaviour, and understand them easily

In short, formal or intuitively, they follow an ongoing process that we in Allegro 234 called "vowels." See Table 4.

Table 4 | Vowels

The vowels are continuous cycle which explains different attitudes that happens almost simultaneously (in this world of network, fluid, changes). They go beyond the classic cycles of planning, management and control. Let's see:

• A | Anticipation: It is to anticipate in a world that moves more by disruptions than evolution. This is the traditional plan, and much more, it’s about our aspirations rather than 10% more than last year
• E | Execution: If things go, we must go beyond management and ensure effective implementation
• I | Innovation: It is to innovate, which does not mean that we should all go for the new vaccine against AIDS. It may be from a modification of my original offer to the creation of a new category
• O | Observations: It is to observe what happens, what it is going on and where are we going. Our habits change, as well as our behaviours to face new realities and even create them (we can change things). It is first and foremost to know what information is relevant to my business, and for me, and then act accordingly. It also to observe what I do with the flexibility to adapt and change when necessary, at the right time
• U | Uniqueness: In the depths of the company roots, in its call to action idea, it is to do what the other vowels tell us: to turn the company and its products/services on something functionally preferred and emotionally desired

It will be better times. Whenever it rained, it stopped!

This blogpost is also in Allegro 234 website.